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Abstract Rockfalls are major and essentially unpredictable sources of danger, particularly along transportation routes (roads and railways). Thus, the assessment of their probability of occurrence is a major challenge for risk management. From a qualitative perspective, it is known that rockfalls occur mainly during periods of rain, snowmelt, or freeze-thaw. Nevertheless, from a quantitative perspective, these generally assumed correlations between rockfalls and their possible meteorological triggering events are often difficult to identify because i) rockfalls are too rare for the use of classical statistical analysis techniques and ii) all intensities of triggering factors do not have the same probability. In this study, we propose a new approach to investigate the correlation of rockfalls with rain, freezing periods, and strong temperature variations. This approach is tested on three French rockfall databases, the first of which exhibits an outstandingly high frequency of rockfalls (approximately 950 events over 11 years), whereas the other two databases are more typical (approximately 140 events over 11 years). These databases come fromthe national highway RN1 on La Réunion Island,
a railway in the Bourgogne-Franche Comté region, and
a railway in the Auvergne region.
Whereas a basic correlation analysis is only able to highlight an already obvious correlation in the case of the "rich" database, the newly suggested method appears to detect correlations even in the "poor" ones. Indeed, the use of this method confirms the positive correlation between rainfalls and rockfalls on La Réunion Island database. This method highlights a correlation between cumulative rainfalls and rockfalls in the Bourgogne region, and it detects a correlation between the daily minimum temperature and rockfalls in the Auvergne region. This new approach is easy to use and also serves to determine the conditional probability of rockfall function of a given meteorological factor. This approach will help to optimize risk management in the studied areas based on their meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, even if some rockfalls are correlated to meteorological factors, other seems to occur independently of these factors, which highlights the unpredictability of rockfall hazard.
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