Gao, Guohua (Shell Global Solutions (US)) | Vink, Jeroen C. (Shell Global Solutions International) | Chen, Chaohui (Shell International Exploration and Production) | Araujo, Mariela (Shell Global Solutions (US)) | Ramirez, Benjamin A. (Shell International Exploration and Production) | Jennings, James W. (Shell International Exploration and Production) | El Khamra, Yaakoub (Shell Global Solutions (US)) | Ita, Joel (Shell Global Solutions (US))
Uncertainty quantification of production forecasts is crucially important for business planning of hydrocarbon-field developments. This is still a very challenging task, especially when subsurface uncertainties must be conditioned to production data. Many different approaches have been proposed, each with their strengths and weaknesses. In this work, we develop a robust uncertainty-quantification work flow by seamless integration of a distributed-Gauss-Newton (GN) (DGN) optimization method with a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and parallelized sampling algorithms. Results are compared with those obtained from other approaches.
Multiple local maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimates are determined with the local-search DGN optimization method. A GMM is constructed to approximate the posterior probability-density function (PDF) by reusing simulation results generated during the DGN minimization process. The traditional acceptance/rejection (AR) algorithm is parallelized and applied to improve the quality of GMM samples by rejecting unqualified samples. AR-GMM samples are independent, identically distributed samples that can be directly used for uncertainty quantification of model parameters and production forecasts.
The proposed method is first validated with 1D nonlinear synthetic problems with multiple MAP points. The AR-GMM samples are better than the original GMM samples. The method is then tested with a synthetic history-matching problem using the SPE01 reservoir model (Odeh 1981; Islam and Sepehrnoori 2013) with eight uncertain parameters. The proposed method generates conditional samples that are better than or equivalent to those generated by other methods, such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and global-search DGN combined with the randomized-maximum-likelihood (RML) approach, but have a much lower computational cost (by a factor of five to 100). Finally, it is applied to a real-field reservoir model with synthetic data, with 235 uncertain parameters. AGMM with 27 Gaussian components is constructed to approximate the actual posterior PDF. There are 105 AR-GMM samples accepted from the 1,000 original GMM samples, and they are used to quantify the uncertainty of production forecasts. The proposed method is further validated by the fact that production forecasts for all AR-GMM samples are quite consistent with the production data observed after the history-matching period.
The newly proposed approach for history matching and uncertainty quantification is quite efficient and robust. The DGN optimization method can efficiently identify multiple local MAP points in parallel. The GMM yields proposal candidates with sufficiently high acceptance ratios for the AR algorithm. Parallelization makes the AR algorithm much more efficient, which further enhances the efficiency of the integrated work flow.
Hong, Aojie (National IOR Centre of Norway and University of Stavanger) | Bratvold, Reidar B. (National IOR Centre of Norway and University of Stavanger) | Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin) | Ruiz Maraggi, Leopoldo M. (University of Texas at Austin)
Aojie Hong and Reidar B. Bratvold, National IOR Centre of Norway and University of Stavanger, and Larry W. Lake and Leopoldo M. Ruiz Maraggi, University of Texas at Austin Summary Decline-curve analysis (DCA) for unconventional plays requires a model that can capture the characteristics of different flow regimes. Thus, various models have been proposed. Traditionally, in probabilistic DCA, an analyst chooses a single model that is believed to best fit the data. However, several models might fit the data almost equally well, and the one that best fits the data might not best represent the flow characteristics. Therefore, uncertainty remains regarding which is the "best" model. This work aims to integrate model uncertainty in probabilistic DCA for unconventional plays. Instead of identifying a single "best" model, we propose to regard any model as potentially good, with goodness characterized by a probability. The probability of a model being good is interpreted as a measure of the relative truthfulness of this model compared with the other models. This probability is subsequently used to weight the model forecast. Bayes' law is used to assess the model probabilities for given data. Multiple samples of the model-parameter values are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, the unique probabilistic forecasts of each individual model are aggregated into a single probabilistic forecast, which incorporates model uncertainty along with the intrinsic uncertainty (i.e., the measurement errors) in the given data. We demonstrate and conclude that using the proposed approach can mitigate over/underestimates resulting from using a single decline-curve model for forecasting. The proposed approach performs well in propagating model uncertainty to uncertainty in production forecasting; that is, we determine a forecast that represents uncertainty given multiple possible models conditioned to the data. The field data show that no one model is the most probable to be good for all wells. The novelties of this work are that probability is used to describe the goodness of a model; a Bayesian approach is used to integrate the model uncertainty in probabilistic DCA; the approach is applied to actual field data to identify the most-probable model given the data; and we demonstrate the value of using this approach to consider multiple models in probabilistic DCA for unconventional plays. Introduction Although numerical techniques for forecasting hydrocarbon production have developed rapidly over the past decades, DCA remains an industry-accepted method and is used extensively in the oil and gas industry. Decline-curve models are very computationally attractive because only production data, which can be easily acquired, are required for determining a few parameter values through history matching.
A challenge in oil-reservoir studies is evaluating the ability of geomechanical, statistical, and geophysical methods to predict discrete geological features. This problem arises frequently with fracture corridors, which are discrete, tabular subvertical fracture clusters. Fracture corridors can be inferred from well data such as horizontal-borehole-image logs. Unfortunately, well data, and especially borehole image logs, are sparse, and predictive methods are needed to fill in the gap between wells. One way to evaluate such methods is to compare predicted and inferred fracture corridors statistically, using chi-squared and contingency tables.
In this article, we propose a modified contingency table to validate fracture-corridor-prediction techniques. We introduce two important modifications to capture special aspects of fracture corridors. The first modification is the incorporation of exclusion zones where no fracture corridors can exist, and the second modification is taking into consideration the fuzzy nature of fracture-corridor indicators from wells such as circulation losses. An indicator is fuzzy when it has more than one possible interpretation. The reliability of an indicator is the probability that it correctly suggests a fracture corridor. The indicators with reliability of unity are hard indicators, and “soft” and “fuzzy” indicators are those with reliability that is less than unity.
A structural grid is overlaid on the reservoir top in an oil field. Each cell of the grid is examined for the presence and reliability of inferred fracture corridors and exclusion zones and the confidence level of predicted fracture corridors. The results are summarized in a contingency table and are used to calculate chi-squared and conditional probability of having an actual fracture corridor given a predicted fracture corridor.
Three actual case studies are included to demonstrate how single or joint predictive methods can be statistically evaluated and how conditional probabilities are calculated using the modified contingency tables. The first example tests seismic faults as indicators of fracture corridors. The other examples test fracture corridors predicted by a simple geomechanical method.
Wheeler, Mary F. (The University of Texas at Austin, USA) | Srinivasan, Sanjay (Pennsylvania State University, USA) | Lee, Sanghyun (Florida State University, USA) | Singh, Manik (Pennsylvania State University, USA)
Optimal design of hydraulic fractures is controlled by the distribution of natural fractures in the reservoir. Due to sparse information, there is uncertainty associated with the prediction of the natural fracture system. Our objective here is to: i) Quantify uncertainty associated with prediction of natural fractures using micro-seismic data and a Bayesian model selection approach, and ii) Use fracture probability maps to implement a finite element phase-field approach for modeling interactions of propagating fractures with natural fractures.
The proposed approach employs state-of-the-art numerical modeling of natural and hydraulic fractures using a diffusive adaptive finite element phase-field approach. The diffusive phase field is defined using the probability map describing the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of natural fractures. That probability map is computed using a model selection procedure that utilizes a suite of prior models for the natural fracture network and a fast proxy to quickly evaluate the forward seismic response corresponding to slip events along fractures. Employing indicator functions, diffusive fracture networks are generated utilizing an accurate computational adaptive mesh scheme based on a posteriori error estimators.
The coupled algorithm was validated with existing benchmark problems which include prototype computations with fracture propagation and reservoir flows in a highly heterogeneous reservoir with natural fractures. Implementation of a algorithm for computing fracture probability map based on synthetic micro-seismic data mimicking a Fort Worth basin data set reveals consistency between the interpreted fracture sets and those observed in the reference. Convergence of iterative solvers and numerical efficiencies of the methods were tested against different examples including field-scale problems. Results reveal that the interpretation of uncertainty pertaining to the presence of fractures and utilizing that uncertainty within the phase field approach to simulate the interactions between induced and natural fracture yields complex structures that include fracture branching, fracture hooking etc.
The novelty of this work lies in the efficient integration of the phase-field fracture propagation models to diffusive natural fracture networks with stochastic representation of uncertainty associated with the prediction of natural fractures in a reservoir. The presented method enables practicing engineers to design hydraulic fracturing treatment accounting for the uncertainty associated with the location and spatial variations in natural fractures. Together with efficient parallel implementation, our approach allows for cost-efficient approach to optimizing production processes in the field.
In this work, we investigate different approaches for history matching of imperfect reservoir models while accounting for model error. The first approach (base case scenario) relies on direct Bayesian inversion using iterative ensemble smoothing with annealing schedules without accounting for model error. In the second approach the residual, obtained after calibration, is used to iteratively update the covariance matrix of the total error, that is a combination of model error and data error. In the third approach, PCA-based error model is used to represent the model discrepancy during history matching. However, the prior for the PCA weights is quite subjective and is generally hard to define. Here the prior statistics of model error parameters are estimated using pairs of accurate and inaccurate models. The fourth approach, inspired from
We present a novel sampling algorithm for characterization and uncertainty quantification of heterogeneous multiple facies reservoirs. The method implements a Bayesian inversion framework to estimate physically plausible porosity distributions. This inversion process incorporates data matching at the well locations and constrains the model space by adding
The proposed workflow uses an ensemble-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach combined with sampling probability distributions that are physically meaningful. Moreover, the method targets geostatistical modeling to specific zones in the reservoir. Accordingly, it improves fulfilling the inherent stationarity assumption in geostatistical simulation techniques. Parameter sampling and geostatistical simulations are calculated through an inversion process. In other words, the models fit the known porosity field at the well locations and are structurally consistent within main reservoir compartments, zones, and layers obtained from the seismic impedance volume. The new sampling algorithm ensures that the automated history matching algorithm maintains diversity among ensemble members avoiding underestimation of the uncertainty in the posterior probability distribution.
We evaluate the efficiency of the sampling methodology on a synthetic model of a waterflooding field. The predictive capability of the assimilated ensemble is assessed by using production data and dynamic measurements. Also, the qualities of the results are examined by comparing the geological realism of the assimilated ensemble with the reference probability distribution of the model parameters and computing the predicted dynamic data mismatch. Our numerical examples show that incorporating the seismically constrained models as prior information results in an efficient model update scheme and favorable history matching.
The objective of this work is to avoid wasteful timestep cuts of the reservoir simulator by developing a timestep-selector that controls the linear and non-linear iterations as well as the physical quantities. Using a Fuzzy logic framework, a non-linear timestep selector has been developed that reduces run time, and increases robustness for challenging nonlinear simulations.
From a linear analysis standpoint a fully implicit reservoir simulator has no stability limit on the size the timestep. However, in practice the non-linearity prevents arbitrary timestep size being chosen. Without any theory to guide us the timestep choice it is left to heuristics, usually based on physical engineering constraints such as the previous time steps, maximum pressure and saturation changes. This can be very effective, but can lead to many timestep cuts, and sometimes lead to failure of the simulator. This is especially common for highly non-linear dual-porosity, dual-permeability reservoirs which are very common in the Middle East. Here a Fuzzy logic framework is used to construct a non-linear timestep selector which takes many inputs (linear and non-linear convergence data as well as pressure and saturation changes) and breaks down the complexity. Firstly fuzzification of the inputs into fuzzy sets (e.g. High medium and low) then applications of rules (e.g. if linear high then timestep is low) and de-fuzzification into a crisp timestep to be used for the next iteration. This process provides us with a powerful framework to construct various strategies for controlling the timestep. In contrast, traditional timestep controllers use crisp logic, this is difficult to blend multiple conflicting inputs to a timestep selector.
To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach results are presented on a suite of cases, covering a wide range of models including compositional and dual-porosity cases. For some cases a dramatic 3x improvement is observed, however, what is more important, is on average the new timestep selector significantly improves performance, especially for the slow challenging cases; by reducing the time steps wasted due to timestep cuts. Perhaps what is most impressive is that the fuzzy controller did achieve the goals of the fuzzy rules to keep the non-linear and linear iterations under control, which had the benefit of reducing total failures of the simulator.
A fuzzy logic framework is applied to timestep selection of a fully implicit reservoir simulator. A combination of convergence data as well as physical quantities are used as inputs which has led to a robust and extendable timestep selector.
Araujo, Mariela (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Chen, Chaohui (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Gao, Guohua (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Jennings, Jim (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Ramirez, Benjamin (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Xu, Zhihua (ExxonMobil) | Yeh, Tzu-hao (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Alpak, Faruk Omer (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.) | Gelderblom, Paul (Shell International Exploration and Production Inc.)
Increased access to computational resources has allowed reservoir engineers to include assisted history matching (AHM) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques as standard steps of reservoir management workflows. Several advanced methods have become available and are being used in routine activities without a proper understanding of their performance and quality. This paper provides recommendations on the efficiency and quality of different methods for applications to production forecasting, supporting the reservoir-management decision-making process.
Results from five advanced methods and two traditional methods were benchmarked in the study. The advanced methods include a nested sampling method MultiNest, the integrated global search Distributed Gauss-Newton (DGN) optimizer with Randomized Maximum Likelihood (RML), the integrated local search DGN optimizer with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and two advanced Bayesian inference-based methods from commercial simulation packages. Two traditional methods were also included for some test problems: the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is known to produce accurate results although it is too expensive for most practical problems, and a DoE-proxy based method widely used and available in some form in most commercial simulation packages.
The methods were tested on three different cases of increasing complexity: a 1D simple model based on an analytical function with one uncertain parameter, a simple injector-producer well pair in the SPE01 model with eight uncertain parameters, and an unconventional reservoir model with one well and 24 uncertain parameters. A collection of benchmark metrics was considered to compare the results, but the most useful included the total number of simulation runs, sample size, objective function distributions, cumulative oil production forecast distributions, and marginal posterior parameter distributions.
MultiNest and MCMC were found to produce the most accurate results, but MCMC is too costly for practical problems. MultiNest is also costly, but it is much more efficient than MCMC and it may be affordable for some practical applications. The proxy-based method is the lowest-cost solution. However, its accuracy is unacceptably poor.
DGN-RML and DGN-GMM seem to have the best compromise between accuracy and efficiency, and the best of these two is DGN-GMM. These two methods may produce some poor-quality samples that should be rejected for the final uncertainty quantification.
The results from the benchmark study are somewhat surprising and provide awareness to the reservoir engineering community on the quality and efficiency of the advanced and most traditional methods used for AHM and UQ. Our recommendation is to use DGN-GMM instead of the traditional proxy-based methods for most practical problems, and to consider using the more expensive MultiNest when the cost of running the reservoir models is moderate and high-quality solutions are desired.
We present a new digital solution based on a novel technique to predict acid gas membranes remaining performance based on the field data. Gas membranes are widely used onshore and offshore for acid gas removal from natural gas due to their efficiency and compactness. These systems are proven and well accepted, however their performance is highly dependent on field operations practices and conditions of the natural gas stream that feeds the system. If operating conditions are not controlled, the system performance can deteriorate. The weakened performance can lead to undesirable product gas specifications, contractual penalties, unexpected downtime, and ultimately the risk of environmental impact. On the other hand, maintenance anxiety and uncertainty can lead to overspend on membrane elements replacements; increasing overall operating expenditures. We developed the new technique during the past two years to allow the system operator to anticipate performance upsets by predictive monitoring and active machine learning using field operations data of gas membrane systems. This technique has adopted one of recursive Bayesian estimation techniques, linear Kalman filtering, and allows operators to predict and manage remaining membrane performance in the field proactively thereby optimize the membrane replacement expenditure.
Ahmed S, Abdulmalek (King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals) | Elkatatny, Salaheldin (King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals) | Ali, Abdulwahab Z (King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals) | Mahmoud, Mohamed (King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals) | Abdulraheem, Abdulazeez (King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals)
Rate of Penetration (ROP) means how fast the drilling bit is drilling through the formations. It is known that in the oil and gas industry, most of the well cost is taken by the drilling operations. So, it is very crucial to drill carefully and improve the drilling processes. Nevertheless, it is hard to know the influence of every single parameter because most of the drilling parameters depend on each other, and altering an individual parameter will have an impact on the other. Due to the difficulty of the drilling operations, up to the present time, there is no dependable model that can estimate the ROP correctly. Consequently, using the artificial intelligence (AI) in the drilling is becoming more and more applicable because it can consider all the unknown parameters in building the model. In this work, a real filed data that contain the real time surface drilling parameters and the drilling fluid properties were utilized by fuzzy logic (FL) to estimate the rate of penetration. The achieved results proved that fuzzy logic technique can be applied effectively to estimate the rate of penetration accurately with R 0.97 and AAPE 7.3%, which outperformed the other ROP models. The developed AI models also have the advantage of using less input parameters than the previous ROP models.