Within the European context, CO2 storage operations shall address the potential impacts of large scale CO2 storage through risk assessment. The key risks identified for this onshore CO2 storage site were the migration through faults and ground deformation.
To quantify the CO2 migration along a fault, flow modelling and uncertainties management codes are coupled to compute the failure probability i.e. the probability of CO2 migration towards a control aquifer. Such probability of failure is characterized by low to very low probability of occurrence which requires a large number of simulations to enable its evaluation. Each failure scenario models the CO2 migration from a storage aquifer to a control aquifer when altering the flow properties of the fault zone. Fault failure analyses are performed on the surrogate models. They show that limited CO2 migration is occurring along the fault but no breakthrough in the control aquifer. The injection induces some pressure disturbance in the control aquifer in about 30% of the cases which lead to effective stress changes.
To quantify effective stress changes due to CO2 injection and the subsequent ground deformation, the mechanical responses of the different sediment layers are modeled coupling flow and geomechanics. The impact of the stress changes on porosity and permeability of the storage reservoir is modeled along with the impact of uncertainties of the mechanical parameters. For this onshore CO2 storage site study case, the expected ground displacement is negligible (below the limit of the measurement capabilities).