The Study of Human Reliability Analysis Based On Dynamic Bayesian Networks Theory

Chen, Luyun (School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University) | Zhang, Yufang (School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University) | Zhang, Lijun (School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University)

OnePetro 

ABSTRACT

With the development of science and technology, the machine system becomes more and more reliable in the man-machine system. Meanwhile, during to the complexity of human being itself, the operation error of human being becomes more and more severe. The human reliability analysis (HRA) has been a necessary part and an essential content of probability safety analysis in the man-machine system. The perception ability, the judgment or decision ability, and the operation action ability of human being are taking into account, by introducing the key performance shaping factor and error correction capability factor, the human operation action error model and operation mission reliability model was discussed. The characteristics of operator behavior with error correction are discussed. Since the human reliability with the dynamic characteristic, time sequence and the ability of error correction, there are some limitations of event tree analysis method in human reliability analysis. By using the dynamic Bayesian networks theory, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of human operation action reliability in the complex man-machine system was carried out. The method of transform human error event tree into dynamic Bayesian network was given. Finally, the mission reliability of ship’s console cabinet desk for example, the quantitative calculation of human operation action reliability was discussed.



INTRODUCTION

The reliability (RS) of complex man-machine system is constituted of operator''s reliability (RH) and machine reliability (RM). With the increasing of machine reliable, the accidents of human being error become the major factor of man-machine system. The human reliability analysis (HRA) has become an important part of reliability analysis for man-machine system. The human reliability problem has become a hotspot in man-machine system. The traditional methods for HRA include technique for human error rate prediction (THERP), human’s cognitive reliability (HCR) and so on. The air traffic management for example, the options and potential ways for a full HRA capability is discussed (Kirwan,Gibson and Hickling, 2008).