Maximizing Value of Information of a Horizontal Polymer Pilot Under Uncertainty

Steineder, Dominik (OMV E&P) | Clemens, Torsten (OMV E&P) | Osivandi, Keyvan (OMV E&P) | Thiele, Marco (Streamsim Technology/Stanford University)

OnePetro 

Abstract

Polymer injection might lead to incremental oil recovery and increase the value of an asset. Several steps have to be taken to mature a polymer injection project. The field needs to be screened for applicability of polymer injection, laboratory experiments have to be performed, and a pilot project might be required prior to field implementation.

The decision to perform a pilot project can be based on a Value of Information (VoI) calculation. The VoI can be derived by performing a workflow capturing the impact of the range of geological scenarios as well as dynamic and polymer parameters on incremental Net Present Value (NPV). The result of the workflow is a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of NPV linked to prior distributions of model parameters and potential observables from the polymer injection pilot.

The impact of various parameters on the CDF of the field-wide NPV can be analyzed and in turn used to decide on what measurements from the pilot have a strong sensitivity on the NPV CDF and are thus informative. In the case shown here, the water cut reduction in the pilot area has a strong impact on the NPV CDF of the polymer injection field implementation. To extract maximum information, the response of the pilot for water cut reduction needs to be optimized under uncertainty.

To calculate the VoI, the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) difference of a decision tree with and without the pilot can be used if the Decision Maker (DM) is risk neutral. However, if the DM requires hurdle values through a Probability of Economic Success (PES), Value Functions (VF) and Decision Weights according to the Prospect Theory should be used. Applying risk hurdles requires a consistent use of VFs and Decision Weights for calculating VoI and the Probability of Maturation (POM) of projects.