Uncertainty analysis as decision making tool for green fields of Yamal region

Biryukov, S. D. (JSOC Rospan International) | Zakirov, I. S. (JCS TNK-BP Management) | Severinov, E. V. (JSOC Rospan International) | Gaidukov, L. A. (JSOC Rospan International) | Miroshnichenko, A. V. (TNK-BP LLC TPRC) | Kudlaeva, N. V. (TNK-BP LLC TPRC) | Endalova, Y. V. (TNK-BP LLC TPRC) | Chameev, I. L. (TNK-BP LLC TPRC)


The new green fields of Yamal region and Eastern Siberia today is one of the important areas for oil production during next 10 years. One of the key problems of field development in these regions is poor infrastructure and lack of input data of geology, target formations and fluids properties. For decision making during field development preparation stage its necessary to carry out estimation of possible scenarios.

Analysis of uncertainty will provide a range of changes in reserves and oil production profiles which can help to estimate economical part of field development project. Also these results can be used for design pipe lines and surface facilities.

Authors of paper suggested the approach how to estimate uncertainties in cases of lack input data of formation based on data of Russkoye oil field.