Uncertainty and Value in Integrated Asset Modelling

Crerar, Alan (Ingen-Ideas Ltd) | Robertson, Andrew Laurence (Ingen-Ideas Ltd)

OnePetro 

The paper will illustrate the application of asset-scale modelling and the benefits thereof, including an analysis of the effect of quantifiable risk on development strategy selection.

While integration asset modelling (IAM) is not of itself a novel topic, practical applications of the technique applied from sub-surface calculations through to commercial/financial analysis are nevertheless uncommon and those including a rigorous treatment of uncertainty still rarer. Included in the paper will be a brief analysis of both the benefits of IAM and suggestions on why it is perhaps not more widely applied.

The main body of the paper, however, will cover two case studies - descriptions of projects carried out using the RAVE (Risk And Value Engineering) IAM software. The first case study will be based upon the Brae asset, operated by Marathon Oil UK. The Brae asset is complex, both technically and commercially, and represents a huge infrastructural investment in the CNS. The paper will illustrate the means by which IAM was used to "see through" this complexity to assist in the forward strategic planning of the asset.

The second case study will describe the development of a reserve as a third party tie back to an existing host platform. Use of the approach in this case allowed rapid, value-based analysis of competing development alternatives (such as host selection, artificial lift techniques and well count) including the sub-surface uncertainty inherent in pre-FEED development studies.

From the case studies presented here and numerous similar projects, the authors will present the conclusions that risk-inclusive integrated asset modelling is both feasible and valuable in marginal and mature environments.

  Country: Europe (1.00)
  Industry: Energy > Oil & Gas > Upstream (1.00)
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