Uncertainty range in production forecasting - PetroWiki


It follows that forecasts that deviate from the actual production with hindsight can still be good forecasts if the uncertainty range is properly defined, justified and documented as will be shown by Example 6 on the Production forecasting FAQs. However, forecasts that contradict each other even though they are based on the same information cannot be good forecasts, even if they are made for different purposes see Example 3 of the Production forecasting FAQs. It is customary in the industry to describe this uncertainty in terms of a low (P90)/high (P10) range. This is consistent with both the Petroleum Resource Management System (PRMS) [1] and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [2]. For volume estimates, a low (P90)/high (P10) range is thus unambiguously defined by statistics.