Design of uncertainty models - PetroWiki


A Monte Carlo model is, in principle, just a worksheet in which some cells contain probability distributions rather than values. Thus, one can build a Monte Carlo model by converting a deterministic worksheet with the help of commercial add-in software. Practitioners, however, soon find that some of their deterministic models were constructed in a way that makes this transition difficult. Redundancy, hidden formulas, and contorted logic are common features of deterministic models that encumber the resulting Monte Carlo model. Likewise, presentation of results from probabilistic analysis might seem no different from any other engineering presentation (problem statement, summary and conclusions, key results, method, and details).