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Unconventional Risk and Uncertainty: What Does Success Look Like? This paper presents approaches for proper risking of uncertain recoverable volumes for an unconventional resource, taking into account the chance of false positives from appraisal-well information. The difficulty in applying traditional reservoir-simulation and -modeling techniques for unconventional-reservoir forecasting is often related to the systematic time variations in production-decline rates. This paper proposes a nonparametric statistical approach to resolve this difficulty. As the drilling industry improves its efforts to capture drilling operation activities in real time, it has generated a significant amount of data that drilling engineers cannot process on their own.