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Trade tensions and economic sentiment take a toll. For the next several years, supplies of crude will depend on several macro factors. Some are easier to forecast than others. Abu Dhabi will conduct its first-ever competitive tender for international partners to explore and develop oil and gas blocks onshore and offshore. The scheme by OPEC and non-OPEC producers to collectively curb oil production has brought stability to the global market—which, as a result, could soon be awash in “a second wave” of US shale output growth.