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Abstract. The science base for global climate change involves natural science, technology, economics, and social science. Information is required to assess the extent, timing, and consequences of potential climate change, and to evaluate the feasibility, costs, effectiveness, and socio-economic impacts of response options. Since 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been the agreed focal point for international assessments. Conclusions of the latest (1995) IPCC assessment have been used to advocate legally binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries.
However, emissions reduction proposals under consideration would be very costly near term and achieve little future environmental benefit, even if climate change proves to be serious. A persuasive scientific and economic case has been made that the long term nature of climate change, the current extent of uncertainty, and the high costs of available response options all justify a more flexible response. Near term this would emphasize research to understand better the implications of potential climate change and the costs and benefits of response options.
It would also include phased implementation of economically justified steps to limit emissions, timed to the normal turnover of capital stock, coupled with research and development to lower the costs of future response options.
1. INTRODUCTION This paper considers scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change in the context of international actions to address the issue*. The science base involves a wide array of disciplines in science, technology, economics and social science. Considerable information is required not only to assess the consequences of potential climate change but also to evaluate the effectiveness, costs and socio-economic consequences of options to limit the threat of climate change. Analysis and assessment of climate change must account for long time-scales and include both developed and developing country perspectives. This paper focuses on scientific understanding and its implications for near term policy issues.
Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) enhance atmospheric absorption of infrared radiation (IR) with the potential to cause global warming and associated climate change. However, gaps in scientific knowledge fundamentally limit our ability to predict the size, timing and consequences, positive or negative, of future changes. The uncertainties are not the sort where science provides estimates * Except where noted, this review is based entirely on information available in the Policy Makers Summaries of the 1990,
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