The global economy continues its journey of evolution and progression driven by industrialism as its primary force. With such a fast pace of development and recovery from several recessions over a number of years, dependency on energy sources became inevitable to satisfy the rising demand. This paper represents a proposed global energy price model that has the flexibility of modeling the energy price, using data from specific regions of the world, as well as the global energy pricing equation. The ANM (Alternate Novel Model) is presented here.
The model focuses mainly on oil price modeling, since oil accounts for more than 84% of the current world energy supply. The model duration is 50 years; starting from 1980 to 2030, model matching period from 1980 to 2011, and the prediction period is from 2012to 2030.
The modeling approach used in ANM adopts weighted averaging of individual factors and it relies on line regression technique. Therefore, future trends are being predicted based on the cyclic nature of the market and historical data "the future is reflection of the past??. ANM can then preduct the future oil prices, depending on the factors and variables that have been placed in the process for the output results.
The paper aims to propose a reliable model that accounts for most governing factors in the global energy pricing equation. All steps followed and assumptions made will be discussed in detailto clarify the working mechanism for this model and pave the road for any future modifications.
This paper aims to study the miscibility features of CO2 miscible injection to enhanced oil recovery from Thani-III reservoir. A Comprehensive simulation model was used to determine multi contact miscibility and suitable equation of state with CO2 as a separate pseudo component using one of the industry's standard simulation software. Experimental PVT data for bottom hole and separator samples including compositional analysis, differential liberation test, separator tests, constant composition expansion, viscosity measurements and swelling tests for pure CO2 were used to generate and validate the model. In addition to that, simulation studies were conducted to produce coreflooding and slimtube experimental models, which were compared with the conclusions drawn from experimental results. Results of this study have shown comparable results with the lab experimental data in regards to minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) calculation and recovery factor estimation, where the marginal errors between both data sets were no more than 7% at its worst. Results from this study are expected to assist the operator of this field to plan and implement a very attractive enhanced oil recovery program, giving that other factors are well accounted for such as asphaltene deposition, reservoir pressure maintenance, oil saturation, CO2 sequestering and choosing the most appropriate time to maximize the net positive value (NPV) and expected project gain.
Over the last two decades, horizontal wells are still more favorable over vertical ones because they maximize reservoir contact and increase productivity index. In addition, horizontal wells yield higher drainage area and reduce water coning impact. Many horizontal drilling patterns have been evaluated in terms of distance between wells and the length of horizontal section heel to tail.
EHL (Effective Horizontal Length) has a great impact on EDA (Effective Drainage Area) of a horizontal well which can be used as indicator to evaluate the success of field development. Many data can be collected and extracted by remote real -time monitoring. These data can be used to estimate very important factors like reservoir permeability and drainage area at each foot of the horizontal section.
This paper presents a new approach of investigating EHL by using UBD (underbalanced drilling) data. Simulation studies were conducted through the horizontal section trajectory of the well to determine the reservoir drainage area along the length of the horizontal section. Eventually, the evaluated EDA summed up to produce the total productivity of the well using nodal analysis for each section separately. Results of this study showed very promising potential for actual field applications.
Since the early days of the petroleum industry, prediction of oil prices has been a real challenge. The puzzling question we need to answer when evaluating project's NCF is: how much is the price of a barrel during the life-span of the project? Accordingly, oil price modeling became a vital tool to predict both short- term and long-term prices. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the available models and none of them can predict oil prices with acceptable accuracy. Only limited controlling parameters are captured by these models. These parameters are basic and derived from simple assumptions of supply and demand dependency. Nowadays, the need for a reliable oil price model became more critical as a change of oil price is experiencing dramatic fluctuations that affect economic decision parameters a great deal.
This paper presents an oil-price model to project the price behavior in the next 20 years. Different scenarios were examined out of which "Economic-Scenario?? was found to be the best suitable predictor. This model takes into account multiple effects of fourteen parameters that are believed to have the highest impacts on oil price. These factors have been further classified into key categories such as supply, demand, reserve and externalities (political/environmental/social) which is regionally based. Other parameters such as population growth and technology are embedded within these key factors. According to this model, oil price has been found to have strong reliance on the US Dollar and inflation, which has been incorporate into the model to ensure a more reliable outcome.
Market behavior modeling is a continuous process which is planned to be integrated into the proposed model in the near future once consistent data become available. The major obstacle in modeling market behavior is the lack of futuristic behavior that is primarily dependent on accurate historical data. This data should reflect the performance of short-term effects such as lifestyle, human behavior, politics, conflicts, wars, natural disasters, environmental issues and other economies' behaviors. The ultimate goal of this modeling effort is to assist in economic and risk analysis evaluation of petroleum projects.
Oil price prediction is one of the vital processes in every oil producing and operating company for current running projects and future new explorations, the whole different segments of industries and commodities would be also interested in knowing the future of oil prices, and we shall not ignore the interest that each country by itself shows to know the effect of future prices on their development plans. The oil price today is somehow far away from the control of any of the world powers, not under the control of the major consumers like the United States, Europe, Japan, Russia & China, nor the Super Majors like BP, Total, Exxon, Shell and Chevron, and not even OPEC majors like Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and UAE for several reasons. The Consumers are not any more controlling the tap of oil as it was before the 1960's. While the Super majors are not any more having the major reserves as it was before the 1970's, while for OPEC the Excess Capacity of oil production that they have during 1970's, 80's, and 90's has diminished with maturing fields and failing to find new reserves. Therefore, the oil price control become mainly in the hand of supply and demand trends, hence the ability to capture the supply and demand trend model and anticipate the future of them, the oil price shall be known with reasonable confidence. Therefore, several attempts have been conducted throughout the years to estimate the oil prices as early as 1960's. In this paper, a new oil price projection modeling is built and called POMVSD (Price of Oil Modeling with Variables of Supply and Demand). A model reflects the new economic changes happening worldwide. The details of this model will be described in this paper in addition to a review and analysis of historical and modern literature that support this new model structure.