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Collaborating Authors
Results
Production Scenarios for the Haynesville Shale Play
Gülen, Gürcan (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Ikonnikova, Svetlana (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Browning, John (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Smye, Katie (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Tinker, Scott W. (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin)
Only approximately estimated original gas in place larger than that of the Barnett with 7% of 147 Tcf can be considered proved on the basis of wells roughly 63% of the Barnett's acreage. However, the drilling and drilled through 2012 and our decline curves, but proved undeveloped completion costs of Haynesville are approximately three times as reserves are probably much higher owing to the slow pace much compared with the Barnett. We present a production scenario of drilling since 2012. With significant resources remaining, the for the Haynesville on the basis of wells existing by the end of 2012 Haynesville has a different outlook than the Barnett and Fayetteville, and wells to be drilled over the next 3 decades and quantify uncertainties possibly reaching a higher peak production of 7.8 Bcf/D in around it. The scenario is underpinned by geologic, engineering, 2020 in a USD 6/million Btu scenario compared with the 2012 and well-economics analyses, which reveal the important peak of 6.2 Bcf/D. As such, the Haynesville will play an important differences between the Haynesville and two other plays we analyzed role in meeting expected increases in natural-gas demand, previously, Barnett and Fayetteville. The production profiles especially when other plays might be in their decline period. To are developed by use of data from 2,131 wells drilled between 2008 capture the upside potential of the Haynesville, we conducted our and 2011 in both Louisiana and Texas, and a transient-linear-flow analysis with drilling through 2045.
- North America > United States > Texas (1.00)
- North America > United States > Louisiana (1.00)
- North America > United States > Arkansas > Washington County > Fayetteville (0.46)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (1.00)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Upstream (1.00)
Fayetteville Shale-Production Outlook
Gülen, Gürcan (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Ikonnikova, Svetlana (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Browning, John (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Tinker, Scott W. (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin)
Summary We developed a production-outlook model based on an interdisciplinary analysis of production data from 3,689 wells that were drilled through 2011 and geologic data on the Fayetteville shale play. The model is the most-granular public study to date because it is modeled after six tiers of varying productivity and well economics of average wells by tier. The analysis covers 2,234 sq miles across partly drained and undrilled acreage. We estimate potential drilling locations by tier for the total area, and use physics-based production profiles assuming transient-linear flow. Drilling pace is adjusted to changes in natural-gas price relative to well economics, historical attrition rates, and logistical constraints. We run simulations and conduct scenario analysis on reasonable ranges for natural-gas price, remaining developable acreage, improvements in technology and well-cost performance, and economic limit for shutting in a well. Our analysis indicates remaining recovery from existing wells and those to be drilled between 2012 and 2030 of approximately 14.5 Tcf in the base case, subject to many uncertainties.
- Geology > Petroleum Play Type > Unconventional Play > Shale Play > Shale Gas Play (0.84)
- Geology > Rock Type > Sedimentary Rock > Clastic Rock > Mudrock > Shale (0.42)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Upstream (1.00)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Downstream (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.94)
- North America > United States > Texas > Haynesville Shale Formation (0.99)
- North America > United States > Texas > Fort Worth Basin > Barnett Shale Formation (0.99)
- North America > United States > Oklahoma > Arkoma Basin > Fayetteville Shale Formation (0.99)
- (4 more...)
- Reservoir Description and Dynamics > Unconventional and Complex Reservoirs > Shale oil (1.00)
- Reservoir Description and Dynamics > Unconventional and Complex Reservoirs > Shale gas (1.00)
- Reservoir Description and Dynamics > Formation Evaluation & Management (1.00)
- Management > Energy Economics > Unconventional resource economics (1.00)
Barnett Shale Production Outlook
Browning, John (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Ikonnikova, Svetlana (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Gülen, Gürcan (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin) | Tinker, Scott W. (Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin)
Summary We developed a production-outlook model on the basis of an interdisciplinary analysis of production data from more than 15,000 wells and geologic data on the Barnett play. The model is the most granular to date because it incorporates 10 tiers of varying productivity and well economics of average wells by tier; it covers close to 8,000 square-mile blocks across partly drained and undrilled acreage, divided between low-Btu and high-Btu segments, and uses drillwell potential by tier for the total area; and it is unique in its use of production profiles on the basis of transient linear drainage. Drilling pace is adjusted to changes in natural-gas price relative to well economics, historical attrition rates, and logistical constraints. We analyze scenarios and conduct a simulation analysis on the basis of reasonable ranges for natural-gas price, remaining acreage developable in partly drained and undrilled blocks, improvement in technology and well cost performance, and economic limit for shutting in a well. The Barnett is the most exploited shale play in the world; cumulative production to 2012 is 13 Tcf. Our analysis indicates remaining recovery of approximately 2.5 times of cumulative production in the base case, but this is subject to many uncertainties. Base case results are consistent with actual production in 2011 and 2012.
- Research Report (0.67)
- Overview (0.46)
- Geology > Petroleum Play Type > Unconventional Play > Shale Play > Shale Gas Play (0.82)
- Geology > Rock Type > Sedimentary Rock > Clastic Rock > Mudrock > Shale (0.42)
- Energy > Oil & Gas > Upstream (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.68)
- North America > United States > West Virginia > Appalachian Basin (0.99)
- North America > United States > Virginia > Appalachian Basin (0.99)
- North America > United States > Texas > Haynesville Shale Formation (0.99)
- (13 more...)