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Collaborating Authors
Results
Hydrocarbon Utilization Optimization for Sustainable Development in Nigeria: Economic Growth Potential
Echendu, Joseph C. (World Bank African Centre of Excellence, University of Port Harcourt) | Iledare, Omowunmi O. (Emerald Energy Institute, UNIPORT) | Onwuka, Emmanuel O. (World Bank ACE) | Ikiensikimama, Sunday S. (UNIPORT)
Abstract The risks and uncertainties associated with oil price volatility and its global economic impact recently is creating a new thinking in terms of hydrocarbon utilization and energy security. Petroleum rent seeking nations are re-evaluating their micro/macroeconomic policies towards budgeting and producers are restrategizing on the most efficient cost of extraction means for sustained development and production. Ensuing oil geopolitics and regional conflicts are also driving a new energy supply and demand route in meeting global energy demand. Consequently, this work proffers an energy model that helps to answer the microeconomic implications of oil price volatility on resource based economies. The model incorporates empirical data and estimated aggregate domestic utilization needs to proffer solution on appropriate energy security and sustenance policy to adopt given forecasts of domestic oil and gas production and imports. The research aim is to analyze the nexus of oil price and economic potentials, especially in Nigeria, with respect to the petroleum value chain. Analysis of the challenges and prospects of hydrocarbon utilization towards economic growth and understanding of the resource base, energy demand and supply mix including development strategy towards energy sustenance are portrayed. Empirical results reveals that increased domestic utilization of resources gives comparative economic advantage in the balance of trade; eliminate opaque subsidy product loss margin; increase transparent downstream refining; and enormous revenune recapture opportunites approximately 25%, ceteris paribus. Result also shows that Nigeria and Africa at large compete favourably in terms of resource base among the committee of nations. As a result, value creation, economic and pragmatic policy and strategy are plausible imperatives toward energy security and stability.
Decline Curve Analysis using Combined Linear and Nonlinear Regression
Ukwu, Austin K. (World Bank Africa Center of Excellence, Institute of Petroleum Studies, University of Port Harcourt) | Onyekonwu, Mike O. (Institute of Petroleum Studies, University of Port Harcourt) | Ikiensikimama, Sunday S. (Department of Petroleum and Gas Engineering, University of Port Harcourt)
Abstract The varieties of methods for predicting oil well performance are material balance analysis, decline curve analysis and numerical reservoir simulation. Among the techniques, the decline curves have been found quite simple and accurate to forecast oil well performance in the absence of known reservoir parameters. The basic concept of the Arps' hyperbolic decline curve analysis is nonlinear curve fitting. However, the difficulty of finding a proper nonlinear algorithm to tune the Arps' hyperbolic decline equation to match historical oil production has forced analysts to use the exponential and harmonic declines, which are adjudged the approximate limiting cases of the Arps' hyperbolic decline. So, this study advocates a shift in paradigm; that is the use of nonlinear regression algorithm to tune the Arps hyperbolic decline equation initialized from linear curve fitting. The hyperbolic equation was expressed as a linear relationship in terms of the first derivative of production rate with respect to time. The first derivative was obtained from natural spline interpolation which greatly improved the quality of the initialized decline parameters and the accuracy of the decline curve analysis.
- Africa > Nigeria (0.29)
- North America > United States (0.28)