The global economy continues its journey of evolution and progression driven by industrialism as its primary force. With such a fast pace of development and recovery from several recessions over a number of years, dependency on energy sources became inevitable to satisfy the rising demand. This paper represents a proposed global energy price model that has the flexibility of modeling the energy price, using data from specific regions of the world, as well as the global energy pricing equation. The ANM (Alternate Novel Model) is presented here.
The model focuses mainly on oil price modeling, since oil accounts for more than 84% of the current world energy supply. The model duration is 50 years; starting from 1980 to 2030, model matching period from 1980 to 2011, and the prediction period is from 2012to 2030.
The modeling approach used in ANM adopts weighted averaging of individual factors and it relies on line regression technique. Therefore, future trends are being predicted based on the cyclic nature of the market and historical data "the future is reflection of the past??. ANM can then preduct the future oil prices, depending on the factors and variables that have been placed in the process for the output results.
The paper aims to propose a reliable model that accounts for most governing factors in the global energy pricing equation. All steps followed and assumptions made will be discussed in detailto clarify the working mechanism for this model and pave the road for any future modifications.
Air emissions from combustion sources are monitored by different techniques such as use of emission factors, engineering calculations, periodic stack monitoring, Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems (CEMS) and Predictive Emission Monitoring System (PEMS). CEMS despite being seen as best practice but is expensive and requires extensive maintenance. PEMS has become recently popular in estimating real-time emissions from various air pollution sources using measured process parameters. Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (ADCO) based on a wide techno-economical survey had chosen PEMS to monitor its emission and maintain compliance report on air quality as per the requirements of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company ADNOC. In addition, ADCO's innovation ensured additional modules to monitor energy performance and also provide a platform for maintaining energy and emission KPIs. ADCO commissioned the first pilot PEMS in Bab field in 2010 covering all emission sources and typical units of the major energy users such as gas turbines, heaters, oil export pumps, water injection pumps and gas compressors.
PEMS real-time information and remote access through web helped in taking prompt corrective actions to control equipments and optimize use of fuel which resulted in subsequent reduction of energy and Green House Gases (GHG) emissions besides compliance assurance against ADNOC's air emission limits for process units. PEMS was proven to be as accurate as the hardware based CEMS over the entire range of operations and therefore it can be readily applied for tracking air emissions and energy efficiency from gas turbines, heaters at marginal cost. In addition to providing data for emissions compliance, ADCO was able to use the PEMS to optimize machinery operation for better performance and efficiency, and consequently reduced emissions.
This paper demonstrates ADCO's success in integrating energy performance and emissions reporting in one simple yet effective solution. The paper further describes how the PEMS was able to integrate data from various plant sources into one reporting system while at the same time meeting ADCO IT protocol.
Natural gas is emerging as the premier fuel of the world economy and will play a pivotal role in China. China, the pre-eminent industrialized nation of the era, needs new and very large energy supplies and currently does not even come close to supply adequate indigenous resources in both quantity and variety. Coal still overwhelmingly dominates the energy mix, causing both major economic and environmental complications. Energy will be "China's choke point?? on its path of becoming a world power.
Today, natural gas accounts for only a small fraction of the Chinese energy mix. With a share of 4 percent, natural gas will have to grow to 10 percent through a government edict by 2020. The volume of gas needed will be staggering.
This paper describes the current state of natural gas in China and its evolutionary history during the past two decades with an attempt to forecast the future over the next decade. Emphasis is placed on technical problems and challenges in natural gas development, particularly in the exploration and production of shale gas. A basin analysis is done to compare the characteristics of potentially producing basins in China with those in the United States. Technological demands are identified and production capability is forecasted.
It is the author's belief that to maintain China's current economic growth of 10 percent, China needs to greatly expand its natural gas use and produce much of it locally. This can be done only by emulating North America, not just by adapting existing technologies but also by developing economies of scale and cost-cutting efficiencies to fit in China's own situation. This is the only way that China can speed up its domestic natural gas production, especially in shale gas developments.
One of the largest industrial constructed wetland systems in the world was commissioned at the start of 2011 to sustainably manage more than 45,000 m3/day of produced water from the Nimr oilfields in Oman. This natural treatment system consists of a passive oil-water separator, 234 hectares of surface flow wetlands and 300 hectares of evaporation ponds and has been instrumental in reducing the amount of hydrocarbon polluted produced water being disposed to the deep well aquifers. The Nimr Water Treatment Plant (Nimr WTP), being a gravity flow system uses minimal fossil fuel for its operation and therefore results in an enormous saving in energy consumption compared to the conventional, energy-intensive disposal method of pumping the water more than 1.5 km below ground into deep aquifers under high pressure. Maximizing the use of locally available and naturally occurring materials for construction, treating and reusing oil contaminated soil from the oilfields and minimizing electricity consumption has decreased the carbon footprint, greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts of the oilfield, thus helping to protect people and the environment. The average operational power consumption for running the NWTP measured for 2011 was only 0.06 kWh per m3 of produced water treated, compared to 3.6 - 5.5 kWh/m3 for the deep well disposal that has traditionally been used. This equates to an energy saving of 98.3 - 98.9 % for managing the produced water and represents a huge saving in energy costs, fossil fuel consumption and subsequent green-house gas emissions making the project not only environmentally friendly but also economically successful for the oil producer. The reduction in CO2 emissions in 2011 was between 40,700 and 62,600 tons. The wetlands and ponds also provide a valuable habitat for migratory birds, with close to 100 different bird species having been identified at the site to date. During 2012, an extension to the wetland system (additional 120 hectares) is being constructed to increase the capacity of the plant to 95,000 m3/day. As part of this extension, approximately 167,000 m3 of oil contaminated soil has been biologically treated and reused as soil substrate in the wetland, providing additional environmental benefits. This paper discusses the details of the plant performance, data analysis and the challenges experienced in the first year operation of the Nimr WTP.
Due to a strong economic and demographic growth around the world, global energy needs are going to increase by about 35% from now until 2030 and energy must be saved. In addition to this, GHG emissions must be reduced in order to limit the consequences of global warming. In this context, TOTAL is working on minimizing flaring and on improving the energy efficiency of its existing and future facilities.
The in-house tool presented in this paper, EAT (Energy Architecture Tool), is primarily designed for future E&P facilities: it aids in the selection of an energy-efficient and low GHG-intensive architecture, during conceptual and pre-project studies. The tool allows doing the case-by-case approach instead of a "dogma?? saying that a specific architecture is equally efficient in every case. It has been validated on four new projects.
Contrarily to studies based on design cases, i.e. extreme cases, this tool simulates the behavior of the energy generation unit (mostly gas turbines) and the energy users (compressors, pumps, furnaces), for the various flows, pressure and heat requirements over the field life. These requirements are less constraining than the design case, but they last much longer, and thus they are to be considered for the energy efficiency purpose.
EAT is a two-steps tool. The first step is to set a reference of energy consumption / GHG emissions. The reference is not a target but it is an ideally optimized case taking into account the process constraints (e.g. the amount of gas to be compressed, its molecular weight, the required suction/discharge pressures per year, site conditions…). The second step is the screening of several architectures to get as close as possible to this reference over the field life. The various alternatives simulated are: number of compression / pumping trains installed, load shedding strategy, use of constant or variable speed drive, all-electric configuration (turbogenerators and electrical drivers only) versus distributed power generation (e.g. turbocompressors), turbine model or other drives, electricity import or export etc.
Once the optimal architectures are identified, the Process, Operations, Technological and Architecture teams check the operability, availability, technical feasibility and economic profitability aspects.
The tool can also be used for existing fields, for building GHG mitigation plans, for setting challenging yet achievable objectives to Operations teams and for developing more accurate forecasts.
Historically crude oil prices show characteristics of seasonality, fat tails, time-variant volatilities and asymmetric distributions. Irrespective of its volatility, the single point value approach is the most widely used in evaluating profitable prospect which do not give a clear understanding of some of the key historical parameters driving its constant swings.
This work is to model oil price variation using time series analysis in order to explore whether the stochastic oil prices exhibit similar ARIMA model with the dependant parameters. This provides a clear understanding of the intrusive characteristics of the stochastic oil price in relation with the dependent parameters. The Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC)/ residual variance was used to select the ARIMA models for the dependent parameters investigated in comparison with the oil price before subsequent forecasting.
Result using the AIC/variance indicates ARIMA (1, 0, 0) with constant as the likely model for the volatile oil price, oil demand, production, world rig count, OECD consumption and population depicting their interdependent. However the likely model for the cost oil, non-OECD consumption and population differ completely which indicates that they are spot price independent. Estimated derivative instrument i.e. actual and optimistic value show a continuous rise in crude oil price of 4% annually (average oil price of $85 and demand 91 million bbls forecasted) which is a more realistic baseline for investment decision when compared to the single point value used.
Many methods have been used to reduce power consumption of rig systems in drilling, completion and workover applications. However, the effects of various parameters on rig system power consumption have not been previously investigated for geothermal operations. Study of such issues is of significant importance because it enables estimation of possible range of parameters where rig system deployment for geothermal drilling operations can be economically viable. The purpose of this study is to create a method which can help engineers choose a combination of parameters that minimize power consumptions. In this work, a computational approach is presented in quantifying rig system energy consumption associated with geothermal drilling operations. The corresponding analytical approach in quantifying energy consumption of geothermal rig system is shown. The paper is geared towards achieving effective and efficient geothermal drilling processes by researching into trends in energy losses. The results obtained show the feasibility of the applied procedure and provide a methodology for determining optimal conditions for geothermal drilling operation, which can substantially improve rig power efficiency from their current states. The parametric study also demonstrates that the decision of the geothermal drilling rig operating policy at the design stage can have a significant effect on the power savings and costs.
KEYWORDS: geothermal drilling process, rig system power, energy consumption, design and operating parameters
Natural gas within the mix of energy sources is likely to take the lead in the world's energy needs. The decisive trend in its utilization relative to other fossil fuels is as a result of; the growing energy demand from an expanding world economy, environmental pressure for the use of a fossil fuel free from environmental degradations, market development and improved technologies for its production, processing, transportation, storage and more importantly its abundance in nature. Presently, the world has a proven reserve of about 156 trillion cubic meters (5500 Trillion cubic feet) of natural gas. Out of this, approximately 31% is discovered in Russia, 36% in the Middle East and 8% in the Asia-Pacific region with overall consumption of about 2.5trillion cubic meters per year. The overall demand will continue to increase especially in Asia-Pacific region where most countries are pressing ahead with energy-intensive industrialization projects. Natural gas prospect is high with the market improving appreciatively since the advent of LNG and CNG technologies where over 4,660 refuelling stations with approximately 2.7million vehicles are running on CNG globally. More so, we envisage more growth in natural gas market in 2020 with the recent projects on GTL from countries like Qatar which is currently constructing her GTL plants up to 15 trains.
Natural gas is a naturally occurring gaseous mixture of hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbons found in underground reservoir rocks either on its own as a free gas or in association with crude oil.
The associated gas that were been produced in course of oil production over the years were ignorantly flared simply because the global market demand of natural gas was insignificant compared to the capital investment involved in its exploration and production. So, investors were rather interested in paying the fine levied on gas flaring than investing on natural gas project which was seen then as unprofitable.
Yan, Zengxuan (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Xu, Hongwei (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Liu, Guanghui (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Li, Qinghong (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Wang, Jianhong (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Ma, Xianping (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Zhao, Feng (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Li, Qingyu (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Yang, Shiquan (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited) | Sun, Lin (Qinghai Drilling Company of CNPC Xibu Drilling Engineering Company Limited)
Installation occupies a small area, the 735hp (4,000m) plateau mountain rig can meet the requirement of drilling operation in plateau mountain area with complex topographic conditions and is characterized by low operation cost, low oil consumption and good economical efficiency.
Introduction (issues and contents)
Operation areas of Qinghai Oilfield located in Qigequan, Nanyishan, Huatugou (the south and north of the mountain) and Yingdong plateau mountain areas, etc. are of dry weather, insufficient oxygen and complex terrain, which make the pre-drilling works hard to be conducted. Moreover, such conditions lead to small wellsites, bumpy roads (with a max. gradient of 30°), difficult demolition and resettlement. Therefore, there is no rig applicable for such areas operation.
Statement of Theory and Definition (main part of the paper):
Overall scheme of the rig
The rig is a mechanically driven drilling rig. The facilities in the back part of the derrick substructure is driven by an integral seven shaft chain box compound , while the turntable is driven by AC frequency conversion motor independently. The diesel engine and the pressure coupler are evenly arranged on the 0.8m-high back substructure, adopting an integral chain box compound , respectively drives the mud pumps, winches, energy saving generator which provides the power to turntable motor through VFD. The winch is installed in the back of the derrick substructure (low installation). The main brake is hydraulic disc brake while the auxiliary brake is aircooled electromagnetic eddy current brake. The height of rig floor is 7.5m and the clearance height is 6.3m. Except for the winch, the mud pump and the compound box, all components are less than 20 tons. The vertical-lift derrick assembly includes 6 sections, each section of which shall be assembled on the ground firstly and then be lifted by hydraulic winches as a whole for installation. The derrick is tightly installed on the base of the substructure, meeting the requirements of 250 tons top drive system.
Advantages of mountain rig
The mountain rig is high reliable and fit the operations below 4,000m, using AC frequency conversion motor to drive the rotary table. The easily controlled rotary speed which has 0-300r/min stepless speed regulating and wide variable speed range, and the torque of rotary table have the heavy overload capability of dealing with downhole incident. The operating cost is 50% lower than the 735hp all-electric drilling rig.
The rig is inserted vertical-lift derrick occupies small area and, suitable, for drilling operations in complex terrain areas.
The rig using hydraulic pressure coupler, power-saving electric generator and other energy saving equipment has low fuel consumption and good economical efficiency.