The global economy continues its journey of evolution and progression driven by industrialism as its primary force. With such a fast pace of development and recovery from several recessions over a number of years, dependency on energy sources became inevitable to satisfy the rising demand. This paper represents a proposed global energy price model that has the flexibility of modeling the energy price, using data from specific regions of the world, as well as the global energy pricing equation. The ANM (Alternate Novel Model) is presented here.
The model focuses mainly on oil price modeling, since oil accounts for more than 84% of the current world energy supply. The model duration is 50 years; starting from 1980 to 2030, model matching period from 1980 to 2011, and the prediction period is from 2012to 2030.
The modeling approach used in ANM adopts weighted averaging of individual factors and it relies on line regression technique. Therefore, future trends are being predicted based on the cyclic nature of the market and historical data "the future is reflection of the past??. ANM can then preduct the future oil prices, depending on the factors and variables that have been placed in the process for the output results.
The paper aims to propose a reliable model that accounts for most governing factors in the global energy pricing equation. All steps followed and assumptions made will be discussed in detailto clarify the working mechanism for this model and pave the road for any future modifications.
Process safety has long embodied the adage, "If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got.?? Despite the development of sophisticated technical and management systems in recent decades, major catastrophic incidents continue to occur. Study of these events show us that the technical failures that led to these events were in fact enabled by organizational failures. Yet process safety systems too often exist in isolation from the wider organization, and indeed from other safety activities themselves. In order to achieve next-level improvement, catastrophic event prevention must move from its position of sole (or disproportionate) focus on the safety technical and management systems to a comprehensive focus that encompasses the broader elements of organizational safety as well. This talk presents the problem facing process safety practitioners today and outlines seven principles that can guide leaders both in aligning the organization to support process safety functioning and in assuring the integrity of process safety systems themselves.
Drilling extended-reach horizontal wells (ERHWs) have become a viable option for field development because these wells bring additional reserves on line which may not be accessible with conventional well designs. Tubular design for ERHWs must be compatible with the intended well objectives, target location, wellbore trajectory in order to minimize the downhole dynamic events such as torque and drag, buckling and vibrations. Presently, the dynamic models used for calculating expected axial load and torque transfers along tubulars in ERHWs consider only the effect of the contact loads and frictional forces generated from torque, drag and buckling events. The expected axial loads and torque calculated during tubular design process are been underestimated using present dynamic models. However, the contact loads and frictional forces generated by lateral and torsional vibration events are critical to the tubular design for ERHWs and should not be ignored.
This study in this paper incorporates torque and drag, buckling and vibration models into the Newton second law of motion/instability in order to derive an integrated dynamic equation for torque and axial load distribution along tubulars in ERHWs. This study also uses theories of unbalanced centripetal force and fluid added-mass to quantify the magnitude of the normal contact load generated during lateral vibrations of a near-straight tubular section in an ERHW. The developed equations can be used for calculating axial load and torque transfer along drilling and completion tubulars depending on assumptions of hydraulic effects, buckling and inertia terms. Results show that the occurrence of downhole dynamic events contributes a relatively higher percentage to torque transfer than they do to axial load transfer. Also, when all the downhole dynamic events occur together and the critical buckling loads have not been reached, torque and drag events contributes the major portion of the axial load transfer followed by lateral vibrations.
The dynamic equations developed in this paper are validated using data from one of the world longest ERHWs. This study will lead to better tubular design through the minimization of failures, non-productive times, and ultimately reduced total drilling and completion costs.