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Abstract A primary outcome of climate change is the sea level rise potential. Risks from future sea level rise entail significant uncertainties concerning sea levels, overall potential impacts, the specific threats faced by particular geographic region, and benefit and costs associated with strategies for addressing such risks. Quantitatively assessing these risks requires the development of spatial risk profiles based on several analytical and computational steps of hazard likelihood assessment, scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment based on inventories of assets along coastal areas particularly of population centers, vulnerability and inundation assessment, and benefit-cost analysis to manage risks. The proposed risk quantification and management framework is consistent with quantitative uncertainty and risk analysis practices in order to enable and enhance decision making. The methodology is outlined and some of its aspects demonstrated using illustrative examples based on notional information. 1. Introduction Carbon, as a primary element for all living systems, is present in pools (or reservoirs) in the Earth's atmosphere, soils, oceans and crust, and is in flux as it moves from one pool to another at different rates. The overall movement of the carbon can be described as a cycle. Starting with the carbon in the atmosphere, it is used in a photosynthesis process with other elements to create new plant material. As a result, this process transfers large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere's pool to the plants' pool. These plants, similar to other living systems, eventually die and decay, or are consumed by fire, or are harvested by humans for other consumption, placing carbon in fluxes to other pools, and eventually released back to the atmosphere. This cycle is linked to each other cycles of the oceans' microbes, fossil rocks, volcanoes, etc. The Earth can be viewed as a whole with individual cycles linked to each on spatial and temporal scales to form an integrated global carbon cycle as shown schematically in Figure 1 that was constructed using values provided by the University of New Hampshire (2011). Pan, et al. (2011) estimated a global carbon budget for two time periods of 1990–1999 and 2000–2007 as shown in Figure 2 that clearly shows the increase of carbon under fossil fuel and cement over time. This increase goes unmatched in the carbon uptakes in efficiency with a potential for creating a prolonged time lag from emissions to uptakes. Such a time lag could drive other processes leading to global temperature increases and thereby contributing to seal level rise (SLR).
- North America > United States > California (1.00)
- North America > United States > Florida (0.93)
- North America > United States > Gulf of Mexico > Eastern GOM (0.46)
Abstract As rising sea levels increasingly threaten coastal regions, there are a number of technical and policy solutions that can reduce the vulnerability of the built environment, including managed realignment and the construction of coastal defense structures. However, adaptation to sea level rise will be constrained not only by the realm of what is technically possible from an engineering perspective but also by how these solutions are understood and received by key decision makers and the general public. This paper examines proposed applications of costal engineering as a potential tool to promote adaptation to sea level rise. Drawing upon examples from California, North Carolina, and Texas, this paper examines how the political dynamics of climate change adaptation, public perceptions of natural hazard risk exposure, and private property interests influence the range of available adaptation responses. Overall, this paper concludes that the legal and policy dynamics surrounding decisions to adapt to sea level rise can be far more significant than the technical ability to adapt. Therefore, the ultimate ability to adapt to sea level rise and reduce coastal vulnerability will depend upon the ability of the technical and policy communities to collaborate to understand the range of feasible, acceptable solutions. This paper attempts to bridge the divide between the technical and the policy communities to understand what is necessary to facilitate efficient adaptation. A full understanding of the range of technically available options that are politically viable is essential to promoting adaptation to sea level rise that is able to preserve both the natural and built environments. INTRODUCTION Global sea level rise presents significant challenges to coastal populations. According to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, global sea levels could rise as much as 0.6 meters by 2100. (IPCC 2007). More recent studies suggest that this IPCC estimate is too low and that global sea level rise by 2100 may be as much as 2 meters. (Vermeer & Rhamstorf 2009). Major impacts of sea level rise on coastal populations include gradual inundation of lands and salt water intrusion into groundwater tables. In addition, climate change is projected to result in increased storminess, which when combined with rising sea levels, has the potential to cause more frequent and severe storm surges.
- Law (1.00)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.93)