This paper was submitted for a student paper session at the conference.It was included in the proceedings as STUDENT16.
Summary This paper presents the design and implementation of risk and impact assessment of atool that helps quantify and manage uncertainty to aid strategic decision-making over the life of an asset.The dynamic and iterative nature of the tool and the processes involved allows for rapid, quantitative systems analysis of the impact of a wide number of options with their associated uncertainty (risk). The result is a robust method to understand the risks and potential value of the prospective enterprise on an ongoing basis through development, operation, and expansion phases. Implementation of the tool over the entire life cycle of an asset is simulated, discussed and illustrated with two case studies.
Introduction The tool is an integration of a series of organizational structures, systems, and processes that produced outstanding results when tested with a five-well exploration-drilling program, which involved three different rigs and teams in the Niger delta. See fig.1 and fig.2.
Risk assessment is a key thread that runs through the process, from high-level risks in a conceptual design to details of day-to-day execution.It is robustly linked to the process for estimating well times and contingency costs and provides a means of communicating risks to business delivery up to management standard project-management.Standard project-management techniques are combined with structuring of the organization around delivery of key elements of it well to ensure that a large project team is properly focused on achieving a world-class operational target in-depth risk assessment and management.
During the conceptual well design phase, the drilling engineer is responsible for starting the project risk-assessment process, allowing articulation of high-risk business risks, such as manning schedule, or financial.
In addition, systematic assessment of offset wells permits identification of major technical risks associated with the area.This risk picture drives the program on long-lead technical studies needed to mitigate problems.
Design Concept The Environmental risk and impact assessment (ERIA) tool has been developed to help quantify and manage uncertainty during development, infrastructure implementation and operation of a field project.The model analysis process quantifies the impact of subsystems (i.e. reservoir, well, or facility) performance with associated uncertainty on the entire system to facilitate strategic planning and decision-making.The tool is based on the fundamental principles of Risk analysis [probability theory, statistics, systems analysis] and Neural Network: Integration + quantification (Logic) + Validation (non-Linear discriminator analysis).
Integration to evaluate an options effect on the entire system. Quantification to compare several options on a consistent absolute basis, and validation to define uncertainty and strategic avenues for improvement.
The modules in the ERIA tool uses dynamically linked models of the subsystems, called an integratedmodel creator(IMC), to evaluate system performance quickly.Risk caused by uncertainty in assumptions, data, (e.g. physical parameters, economic data), or the model is also quantified when appropriate and integrated with the ICM to give an ERIA model.The result is an iterative process that quickly evaluates alternative options for design and reacts to new data during implementation or operation phases of a project over the life of an asset.The ERIA tool process should be used to create a living model to manage a field during all phases of its life. See fig. 7, which shows the main chain for the computer-based tool.