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Collaborating Authors
Permian Basin
Abstract Prompted by the need to fully characterize a 10,000 plus undrilled well inventory, Pioneer Natural Resources began using a stochastic system to evaluate its Spraberry Trend portfolio. The system incorporated methods advocated in the recently published SPEE Monograph 3, "Guidelines for the Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays." This paper reviews the tools and processes employed to statistically value Pioneer's undeveloped potential across its Spraberry Trend acreage. Clearly defining the entire well inventory enabled Pioneer to economically optimize the development of its entire Spraberry Trend portfolio. Evaluating opportunities using a stochastic process enables the historical production performance to be analyzed over a broad test area as opposed to being confined to a location's "direct offsets". The Spraberry Trend has a large existing well count that can be leveraged for statistical analysis. However, its complex development history and variability in vertical well production horizons can make this difficult. To adjust for these impedances, analogue well sets were defined by generating standardized multi-zone production groups and categorizing the increased density drilling by well vintage. Several unique tools and an extensive individually forecasted well data set were created to increase the efficiency of the process. A robust statistical definition of Pioneer's entire Spraberry asset facilitated the optimization of its entire Pioneer portfolio through: allocation of the 36 rig program based on economics and land requirements, comparing potential acquisitions to the current portfolio, and increasing clarity of the Net Asset Value of the Spraberry. Methods reviewed in this paper have applications beyond portfolio optimization; Pioneer has already modified these stochastic evaluation methods to book proved reserves across its acreage position in the Spraberry Trend. Additionally, other operators could employ similar techniques for economic assessments of their portfolios in other resource plays.
- North America > United States > Texas > Midland County (1.00)
- North America > United States > Texas > Martin County (1.00)
- North America > United States > Texas > Howard County (1.00)
- North America > United States > Texas > Dawson County (1.00)
- Geology > Sedimentary Geology (0.69)
- Geology > Petroleum Play Type > Unconventional Play (0.54)
- Geology > Rock Type > Sedimentary Rock (0.46)
- North America > United States > Texas > Permian Basin > Val Verde Basin > Upper Wolfcamp Formation (0.99)
- North America > United States > Texas > Permian Basin > Strawn Formation (0.99)
- North America > United States > Texas > Permian Basin > Midland Basin > Spraberry Field > Spraberry Formation (0.99)
- (6 more...)
Executive Summary The increasing attention and development of unconventional resources has many in the industry searching for suitable analogs to supplement their evaluation. A common approach is the use of type wells. Type wells are created by averaging the rate of several analogous wells. This type well rate and corresponding volume is used as a benchmark for evaluating and guiding forecasts for similar wells. The concept of type wells is not new but there are aspects that can be refined to improve results. The current industry practice has a flaw that when combined with development practices will provide inaccurate results. When creating a type well from historical data only, forecasts are implicitly calculated for wells that do not have enough production to reach the end of the type well time interval. Adding to this is the fact that operators will optimize profit by drilling their best wells first. In this instance the type wells will have a greater rate profile and expected ultimate recovery (EUR) than the underlying data will support. This is because the implicit forecasts for the newer, less productive wells are created from the older, better wells. Conversely, type wells will under-predict rate and EUR in technical plays where performance improves with experience. This paper proposes an approach to address the flaw. When historical production data is merged with reliable production forecasts to build a type well, the resulting type well is the best available representation of the underlying data. Measures to ensure accurate forecasts on individual wells are recommended. As an extension to predicting a single rate for similar wells, type wells are also employed to predict different percentile outcomes for similar wells. A common method considers all of the data and calculates a percentile at each time step (Time Slice approach). This approach does not produce consistently reliable results. This paper will propose an alternative approach to creating Type Wells at varying percentiles by analyzing actual wells whose outcome is close in value to the desired percentile.
- North America > Canada (0.68)
- North America > United States > Texas (0.47)
- North America > United States > Gulf of Mexico > Central GOM > West Gulf Coast Tertiary Basin > Garden Banks > Block 605 > Winter Field (0.99)
- North America > Canada > Alberta > Western Canada Sedimentary Basin > Alberta Basin > Deep Basin > Wild River Field (0.99)
- North America > United States > Texas > Permian Basin > Wolfcamp Formation (0.98)
- (2 more...)