Management and organizational factors have contributed directly or indirectly, to many tanker accidents. These factors are frequently not considered in human reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment or accident investigations. In order to identify effective and efficient measures to prevent accidents, a systematic approach including all important root causes and variables must be utilized. The objective of this paper is to present a probabilistic risk model for tanker grounding which includes management and organizational factors and their relationship to human error. Work on this model continues the development of an earlier model which applied risk assessment methodologies from the nuclear power industry to quantify the impact of human error on the probability of tanker grounding. This approach is extended to consider the effect of management and organizational factors on human performance shaping factors, and ultimately on human error. This effect is examined and quantified using expert opinion and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Management and organizational factors found to have the greatest Impact on the probability of grounding are identified and compared to factors emphasized by the International Safety Management (ISM) Code.
INTRODUCTION A number of highly visible oil spills have increased the public's awareness of the dangers involved in transporting oil at sea. As a result, the marine industry has come under increased pressure to reduce the risk of such accidents. Traditionally, design deficiencies and individual error have received the most attention when assessing tanker risk and investigating tanker accidents. More recently the importance of management and organizational factors (MOFs) in ship operations has been realized (Boniface and Bea, 1996a & b; Moore and Bea, 1995). Human error has a substantial impact on the reliability of complex systems, and it may occur in any phase of design, construction or operation. Due to the large number of accidents caused by human error, success in reducing tanker risk depends directly on measures to improve human performance (NRC, 1994).