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The examples below are motivated by a set of frequently asked questions (FAQs), in turn highlighting common errors seen in forecasting, and are summarized by learning points that demonstrate why a consistent forecast definition is a pre-requisite for a lean forecasting process, applicable to resource estimation, business planning and decision making. It is not a requirement to use these definitions or the proposed forecasting principles but it is considered best practice; the examples will show that, the closer a company applies these definitions and principles, the leaner the overall forecasting, resource estimation and business planning process will be. Lean in this context means "getting it right the first time" and avoiding waste and unnecessary re-work. Does my forecast always have to result in a high (P10)/best (P50)/low (P90) estimate of the ultimate recovery? There are many situations, where the model objectives dictate another objective function than ultimate recovery; however, the forecaster should always plan for making a P10/P50/P90 forecast that is consistent with the resource estimates in addition to the primary objectives of the study. This should be done whether the customer asks for it or not. A reservoir engineer was requested to provide forecasting support for an exploration lease sale. A number of offshore blocks were on offer and he made a Monte Carlo simulation, based on seismically derived volumes, reservoir property trends, range of well count, development/operating costs and infrastructure requirements to point of sale. The objective functions were NPV and EMV for a significant number of prospects in these offshore blocks.
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