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Search Petrowiki: Resources AND reserves models
...Resources and ...reserves models Estimating resource and ...reserves crosses the disciplines between geoscientists and petroleum engineers. While the geoscientist may w...
...Reserves estimation of shale gas Shale gas is becoming increasingly important globally. The nature of thes...e reservoirs pose special considerations in reserves estimation. What follows was written in 2001 and needs to be updated based on current experience. N...ntioned remain appropriate. Contents * 1 Background * 2 Calculation and considerations * 3 Gas reserves estimation * 4 Nomenclature * 5 References * 6 Noteworthy papers in OnePetro * 7 Online multime...
As reported in mid-2000, natural gas produced from shale in the US has grown to be[1] approximately 1.6% (0.3 Tcf annually) of total gas production. The first commercial production of natural gas from shale was developed to supply gas to the town of Fredonia, New York, US, in the late 1820s, predating Col. Drake's first oil well by almost 40 years. By 1979, some 60 Bcf/year was being produced from wells in the Appalachian (Ohio) basin. Production from the Antrim shale (Michigan basin) began in the mid-1980s and by 1994 had surpassed production of the Appalachian basin. Three other US basins--San Juan (Colorado, New Mexico), Fort Worth (Texas), and Illinois (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky) currently are producing from shale. Total US gas-bearing shale resources[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] are shown in Table 1.
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...Problems with deterministic models People who espouse risk-analysis methods are sometimes challenged by skeptics to justify the effo...pears in Murtha:[1] "We do risk analysis because there is uncertainty in our estimates of capital, reserves, and such economic yardsticks as NPV(net-present value). Quantifying that uncertainty with ranges o...s everyone understand the risks involved. There is always an underlying model, such as a volumetric reserves estimate, a production forecast, a cost estimate, or a production-sharing economics analysis. As we...
People who espouse risk-analysis methods are sometimes challenged by skeptics to justify the effort required to implement these methods. We must answer the question: "Why bother with risk analysis?" Put another way, "What's wrong with deterministic methods?" A short answer appears in Murtha:[1] "We do risk analysis because there is uncertainty in our estimates of capital, reserves, and such economic yardsticks as NPV(net-present value). Quantifying that uncertainty with ranges of possible values and associated probabilities (i.e., with probability distributions) helps everyone understand the risks involved. There is always an underlying model, such as a volumetric reserves estimate, a production forecast, a cost estimate, or a production-sharing economics analysis. As we investigate the model parameters and assign probability distributions and correlations, we are forced to examine the logic of the model. The language of risk analysis is precise; it aids communication, reveals assumptions, and reduces mushy phrases and buzz words. This language requires study and most engineers have little exposure to probability and statistics in undergraduate programs."
...Category:5.7 Reserves evaluation . Pages in category "5.7 ...Reserves evaluation" The following 5 pages are in this category, out of 5 total. A * Associated and non...associated gas E * PEH:Estimation of Primary Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Condensate G * Gas formation volume factor and density R * ...
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...Reserves estimation of tight gas reservoirs As defined by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (U...1 md or less. Others have placed the upper limit at 1 md. Estimates of ultimate recovery from these resources vary widely and depend chiefly on assumptions of wellhead gas price. Contents * 1 Consideration ...of reserves estimation * 2 Nomenclature * 3 References * 4 Noteworthy papers in OnePetro * 5 External links...
As defined by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (U.S. FERC), low-permeability ("tight") gas reservoirs have an average in-situ permeability of 0.1 md or less. Others have placed the upper limit at 1 md. Estimates of ultimate recovery from these resources vary widely and depend chiefly on assumptions of wellhead gas price. Methods for estimating gas reserves in moderate- to high-permeability reservoirs are unreliable in very-low-permeability reservoirs. The unreliability can be attributed to the geologic setting in which these reservoirs occur and the completion methods required to make them commercial.
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...PEH:Estimation of Primary Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Condensate Publication Information Petroleum Engineering Handbo...stein, Editor Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers Chapter 18 โ Estimation of Primary Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Condensate Ron Harrell, SPE, Ryder Scott Co., Chap Cronquist, SPE ...-120-8 Get permission for reuse Most exploration and production companies' assets consist of the resources and ...
Reserves are those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward. All reserves estimates involve some degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty depends chiefly on the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available at the time of the estimate and the interpretation of these data. The relative degree of uncertainty may be conveyed by placing reserves into one of two principal classifications, either proved or unproved. Unproved reserves are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves and may be further subclassified as probable and possible reserves to denote progressively increasing uncertainty regarding their recoverability.
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...olstein, Editor Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers Chapter 18 โ Estimation of Primary Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Condensate Ron Harrell, SPE, Ryder Scott Co., Chap Cronquist, SPE C...lvey box, illustrating the relationship between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) classification of resources and the 1997 SPE/WPC classification of ...reserves. (After McKelvey.[5]) The 1997 SPE/WPC definitions[6] quoted above evolved over many years through...
Although reserves estimates for known accumulations historically have used deterministic calculation procedures, the 1997 SPE/WPC definitions allow either deterministic or probabilistic procedures. Each of these is discussed briefly in the next two sections. Thereafter--except for another section on probabilistic procedures near the end--the chapter will focus on deterministic procedures because they still are more widely used. Both procedures need the same basic data and equations. Deterministic calculations of oil and/or gas initially in place (O/GIP) and reserves are based on best estimates of the true values of pertinent parameters, although it is recognized that there may be considerable uncertainty in such values.
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...563-122-2 Get permission for reuse Introduction The oil and gas industry invests money and other resources in projects with highly uncertain outcomes. We drill complex wells and build gas plants, refineries...ds themselves. There are programs to do Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis. Analytic models to do economics can be linked to both Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees. Closely related ar...plications of Technologies * 1.5 Engineering and Geoscientific Issues * 1.6 Design of Uncertainty Models * 1.7 Estimated Future of Technology for the Next Decade * 2 Historical Perspective * 2.1 Origin...
The oil and gas industry invests money and other resources in projects with highly uncertain outcomes. We drill complex wells and build gas plants, refineries, platforms, and pipelines where costly problems can occur and where associated revenues might be disappointing. We may lose our investment; we may make a handsome profit. We are in a risky business. Assessing the outcomes, assigning probabilities of occurrence and associated values, is how we analyze and prepare to manage risk.
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... customer often does not know that he needs low (P90), best estimate ( P50), high (P10) estimate of resources volumes. As a forecaster, you should always treat the range in ultimate recovery as an objective f...high forecast for EUR; however, the lean approach would be to still provide a forecast adequate for reserves and business planning after the decision has been made. This can save a lot of work duplication lat...subsurface team is also requested to now produce a slightly more complex model that is adequate for reserves and forecasting and reflects all the available data and the full uncertainty in ultimate recovery. ...
The examples below are motivated by a set of frequently asked questions (FAQs), in turn highlighting common errors seen in forecasting, and are summarized by learning points that demonstrate why a consistent forecast definition is a pre-requisite for a lean forecasting process, applicable to resource estimation, business planning and decision making. It is not a requirement to use these definitions or the proposed forecasting principles but it is considered best practice; the examples will show that, the closer a company applies these definitions and principles, the leaner the overall forecasting, resource estimation and business planning process will be. Lean in this context means "getting it right the first time" and avoiding waste and unnecessary re-work. Does my forecast always have to result in a high (P10)/best (P50)/low (P90) estimate of the ultimate recovery? There are many situations, where the model objectives dictate another objective function than ultimate recovery; however, the forecaster should always plan for making a P10/P50/P90 forecast that is consistent with the resource estimates in addition to the primary objectives of the study. This should be done whether the customer asks for it or not. A reservoir engineer was requested to provide forecasting support for an exploration lease sale. A number of offshore blocks were on offer and he made a Monte Carlo simulation, based on seismically derived volumes, reservoir property trends, range of well count, development/operating costs and infrastructure requirements to point of sale. The objective functions were NPV and EMV for a significant number of prospects in these offshore blocks.
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...and reduce this mismatch. There are three paradoxes we struggle with when forecasting oil rates or reserves, these will be discussed in the initial portion of the chapter. Next, we then quote the typical err...al is that we often overestimate initial recovery and rates of recovery but underestimate long term reserves. In general reservoir heterogeneity and an underestimation of complexity cause an overestimation of... Heather 1997 etc. Ironically technology and knowledge of reservoir heterogeneity allows us to grow reserves later in the life of the field. Reserve growth is most likely in marginal reservoirs that are "perm...
Historically and currently the oil industry has delivered only about 75% of what was forecasted. There are three paradoxes we struggle with when forecasting oil rates or reserves, these will be discussed in the initial portion of the chapter. Next, we then quote the typical error ranges of forecasts in the literature. However there is a shortage of published data on error ranges. Following this, the chapter summarises a look-back procedure that will improve the next generation of forecasts when dynamic or new data comes in. In addition to technical factors internal to the reservoir or production system, external factors such as project delays play a role so this will be discussed as well.