Vorobev, Vladimir (Gazpromneft-GEO, LLC) | Safarov, Ildar (Gazpromneft-GEO, LLC) | Mostovoy, Pavel (Gazpromneft Science & Technology Centre, LLC) | Shakirzyanov, Lenar (Gazpromneft-GEO, LLC) | Fagereva, Veronika (Gazpromneft Science & Technology Centre, LLC)
Eastern Siberia is characterized by the extremely complex geological structure. The main factors include multiple faults, trappean and salt tectonics, the complex structure of the upper part of the section (0–1200 m) and its high-velocity characteristic (5000–6000 m/s), the high degree of rock transformation by secondary processes, low formation temperatures (10–30°C), the mixed fluid composition (gas, oil and water), and low net thicknesses (5–7 m) of productive layers. The fields of the region are among the most complex ones in the world according to the BP Company's statistics. New seismic and geologic model based on complex analyses of core, well logs, well tests, seismic and electromagnetic data allowed the Gazpromneft-GEO company to drill a series of successful wells.
Gazpromneft-GEO, LLC.holds three oil and gas exploration and production licenses within the Ignyalinsky, Vakunaisky and Tympuchikansky (Chona field) subsurface blocks (Russia, Eastern Siberia, Irkutsk Region and Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)). The area of the blocks is 6,855 sq.km, 3,050 sq.km of which are covered by the 3D seismic and high-density electric prospecting (
The work was carried out within the frames of scientific research and field works at the Gazpromneft-GEO, LLC. fields in Eastern Siberia. The high-density full-azimuth ground-based seismic using the UniQ technology was performed in Russia for the first time. The electric exploration with the near-field time-domain electromagnetic method was carried out along the same lines for the first time in Russia as well. This allowed to form the high-density cube of geoelectric properties. Model based on the wells (Facies model, Petrophysics model) and field geophysical data (3D seismic survey, 3D electric exploration, gravimetric survey, magnetic survey) complexation was made. The use of the approach allows to reduce the number of wells required for exploration of fields by 40%.
In this paper, the approach to multivariate static and dynamic modeling is considered on the example of an offshore field discovered in 2017. Based on the limited volume of information, the quantitative and qualitative description of uncertainties included further in the 3D modeling is made. This model is proposed to be used as a tool for prompt decision making when implementing a fast-track project with limited time between exploration and pre-FEED stages.
Identification of a prospect is normally done based on seismic interpretation and geological understanding of the area. However, due to the inherent uncertainties of the data we still observe in many cases that all key petroleum system elements are present, but still the drilled prospect is dry. Such failures are mostly attributed to a lack of understanding of seal capacity, reservoir heterogeneity, source rock presence and maturation, hydrocarbon migration, and relative timing of these processes. The workflow described in this paper aims to improve discovery success rates by deploying a more rigorous and structured approach. It is guided by the play-based exploration risk assessment process. The starting point is always that the process is guided by the the basic understanding of a mature kitchen should always be based on a regional scale petroleum systems model. However, while evaluating prospects, the migration and entrapment component of a prospect should always be investigated by means of a locally refined grid-based petroleum system model. The uniquepart of this approach is the construction of a high-resolution static model covering the prospects, which is built by using available well data, seismo-geological trends and attributes to capture reservoir potential. Additional inputs such as fault seal analysis also helps to understand prospect scale migration and associated geological risks. In the regional play and local prospect-scale petroleum system models, geological and geophysical inputs are utilized to create the uncertainty distribution for each input parameter which is required for assessing the success case volume of identified prospects. The evaluated risk is combined with the volumetric uncertainty in a probabilistic way to derive the risked volumetrics. It is further translated into an economic evaluation of the prospect by integrating inputs like estimated production profiles, appropriate fiscal models, HC price decks, etc. This enables the economic viability of the prospects to be assessed, resulting in a portfolio with proper ranking to build a decision-tree leading to execution and operations in ensuing drilling campaigns.
This paper considers Bayesian methods to discriminate between models depending on posterior model probability. When applying ensemble-based methods for model updating or history matching, the uncertainties in the parameters are typically assumed to be univariate Gaussian random fields. In reality, however, there often might be several alternative scenarios that are possible a priori. We take that into account by applying the concepts of model likelihood and model probability and suggest a method that uses importance sampling to estimate these quantities from the prior and posterior ensembles. In particular, we focus on the problem of conditioning a dynamic reservoir-simulation model to frequent 4D-seismic data (e.g., permanent-reservoir-monitoring data) by tuning the top reservoir surface given several alternative prior interpretations with uncertainty. However, the methodology can easily be applied to similar problems, such as fault location and reservoir compartmentalization. Although the estimated posterior model probabilities will be uncertain, the ranking of models according to estimated probabilities appears to be quite robust.
Hadavand, Mostafa (University of Alberta) | Carmichael, Paul (ConocoPhillips Canada) | Dalir, Ali (ConocoPhillips Canada) | Rodriguez, Maximo (ConocoPhillips Canada) | Silva, Diogo F. S. (University of Alberta) | Deutsch, Clayton Vernon (University of Alberta)
Mostafa Hadavand, University of Alberta; Paul Carmichael, Ali Dalir, and Maximo Rodriguez, ConocoPhillips Canada; and Diogo F. S. Silva and Clayton V. Deutsch, University of Alberta Summary 4D seismic is one of the main sources of dynamic data for heavy-oil-reservoir monitoring and management. Thus, the large-scale nature of fluid flow within the reservoir can be evaluated through information provided by 4D-seismic data. Such information may be described as anomalies in fluid flow that can be inferred from the unusual patterns in variations of a seismic attribute. During steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), the steam-chamber propagation is fairly clear from 4D-seismic data mainly because of changes in reservoir conditions caused by steam injection and bitumen production. Anomalies in the propagation of the steam chamber reflect the quality of fluid flow within the reservoir. A practical methodology is implemented for integration of 4D seismic into SAGD reservoir characterization for the Surmont project. Introduction One of the main objectives in petroleum-reservoir modeling is to predict the future performance of the reservoir under a recovery process. It is not possible to establish the true spatial distribution of reservoir properties using limited data. Thus, the modeling process is ill-posed and subject to uncertainty (Pyrcz and Deutsch 2014). Geostatistical simulation provides a framework to quantify geological uncertainty that is represented by multiple equally probable realizations of the reservoir model. The uncertainty can be reduced by integration of all available sources of data, including static and dynamic (time-variant) data. However, each source of data provides information at different scales and levels of precision. Although there are well-established geostatistical techniques to generate stochastic realizations of the reservoir conditioned to static data, such as local measurements from wells and 2D/3D-seismic data, effective integration of dynamic data remains a major challenge. Time-lapse seismic, or 4D seismic, is one of the main dynamic sources of data for heavy-oil-reservoir monitoring and management. It contains valuable information regarding fluid movement, temperature, pressure buildup, and quality of fluid flow within the reservoir during a recovery process (Lumley and Behrens 1998; Gosselin et al. 2001). For SAGD, the evolution of the steam chamber over time is fairly clear in 4D-seismic images.
Azevedo, Leonardo (Cerena/Decivil, Instituto Superior Técnico) | Demyanov, Vasily (Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University) | Lopes, Diogo (Cerena/Decivil, Instituto Superior Técnico) | Soares, Amílcar (Cerena/Decivil, Instituto Superior Técnico) | Guerreiro, Luis (Partex Oil & Gas)
Geostatistical seismic inversion uses stochastic sequential simulation and co-simulation as the perturbation techniques to generate and perturb elastic models. These inversion methods allow retrieve high-resolution inverse models and assess the spatial uncertainty of the inverted properties. However, they assume a given number of a priori parametrization often considered known and certain, which is exactly reproduce in the final inverted models. This is the case of the top and base of main seismic units to which regional variogram models and histrograms are assigned. Nevertheless, the amount of existing well-log data (i.e., direct measurements) of the property to be inverted if often not enough to model variograms and its histograms are biased towards the more sand-prone facies. This work shows a consistent stochastic framework that allows to quantify uncertainties on these parameters which are associated with large-scale geological features. We couple stochastic adaptive sampling (i.e., particle swarm optimization) with global stochastic inversion to infer three-dimensional acoustic impedance from existing seismic reflection data. Key uncertain geological parameters are first identified, and reliable a priori distributions inferred from geological knowledge are assigned to each parameter. The type and shape of each distribution reflects the level of knowledge about this parameter. Then, particle swarm optimization is integrated as part of an iterative geostatistical seismic inversion methodology and these parameters are optimized along with the spatial distribution of acoustic impedance. At the end of the iterative procedure, we retrieve the best-fit inverse model of acoustic impedance along with the most probable value for the location of top and base of each seismic unit, the most likely histogram and variogram model per zone. We couple stochastic adaptive sampling (i.e., particle swarm optimization) with global stochastic inversion to infer three-dimensional acoustic impedance from existing seismic reflection data. Key uncertain geological parameters are first identified, and reliable a priori distributions of potential values are assigned to each parameter. The type and shape of each distribution reflects the level of knowledge about this parameter. Then, particle swarm optimization is integrated as part of an iterative geostatistical seismic inversion methodology and these parameters are optimized along with the spatial distribution of acoustic impedance. At the end of the iterative procedure we retrieve the best-fit inverse model of acoustic impedance along with the most probable value for the location of top and base of each seismic unit, the most likely histogram and variogram model per zone.
In this work, we focus on a Bayesian inversion method for the estimation of reservoir properties from seismic data and we study how the inversion parameters, such as rock-physics and geostatistical parameters, can affect the inversion results in terms of reservoir performance quantities (pore volume and connectivity). We apply a Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of facies, acoustic impedance and porosity. The method is based on a Gibbs algorithm integrated with geostatistical methods that sample spatially correlated subsurface models from the posterior distribution. With the ensemble of multiples scenarios of the subsurface conditioned to the experimental data, we can evaluate two quantities that impact the production of the reservoir: the reservoir connectivity and the connected pore volume. For each set of parameters, the inversion method yields different results. Hence, we perform a sensitivity analysis for the main parameters of the inversion method, in order to understand how the subsurface model may be influenced by erroneous assumptions and parameter settings.
Presentation Date: Monday, October 15, 2018
Start Time: 1:50:00 PM
Location: 206A (Anaheim Convention Center)
Presentation Type: Oral
He, Dongyang (China University of Petroleum-East China) | Yin, Xingyao (China University of Petroleum-East China) | Zong, Zhaoyun (China University of Petroleum-East China) | Li, Kun (China University of Petroleum-East China)
Summary Gaussian mixture model can be used to describe the multimodal behaviour of reservoir properties due to their variations within different discrete variables, such as facies. The weights of the Gaussian components represents the probabilities of the discrete variables. However, Bayesian linear inversion based on Gaussian mixture may misclassify discrete variables at some points, which may lead to a bad inversion result. In this study, we consider the spatial variability of discrete variables and combine Gaussian mixture model with the Sequential indicator simulation to determine the weight of each discrete variable in Sequential Bayesian linear inversion problems. We then can obtain the analytical solution of the Bayesian linear inverse problem and simultaneously classify the discrete variables.
There is a critical and growing need for information about subsurface geological properties and processes over sufficiently large areas that can inform key scientific and societal studies. Airborne geophysical methods fill a unique role in Earth observation because of their ability to detect deep subsurface properties at regional scales and with high spatial resolution that cannot be achieved with groundbased measurements. Airborne electromagnetics, or AEM, is one technique that is rapidly emerging as a foundational tool for geological mapping, with widespread application to studies of water and mineral resources, geologic hazards, infrastructure, the cryosphere, and the environment. Applications of AEM are growing worldwide, with rapid developments in instrumentation and data analysis software. In this study, we summarize several recent hydrogeophysical applications of AEM, including examples drawn from a recent survey in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP). In addition, we discuss developments in computational methods for geophysical and geological model structural uncertainty quantification using AEM data, and how these results are used in a sequential hydrogeophysical approach to characterize hydrologic parameters and prediction uncertainty.
Presentation Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Start Time: 8:30:00 AM
Location: 213B (Anaheim Convention Center)
Presentation Type: Oral
Matthew, Free (Arup) | Esad, Porovic (Arup) | Jason, Manning (Arup) | Yannis, Fourniadis (Arup) | Richard, Lagesse (Arup) | Charlene, Ting (Arup) | Grace, Campbell (Arup) | Areti, Koskosidi (Arup) | Andrew, Farrant (BGS) | Ricky, Terrington (BGS) | Gareth, Carter (BGS) | Tarek, Omar (ADMA-OPCO)
This paper presents a new purpose-built digital interface for obtaining location-specific geological and geotechnical ground conditions for four oil and natural gas fields offshore of Abu Dhabi in the UAE. The geological model was developed using the software package GSI3D which was applied to an offshore study area for the first time. Statistically derived geotechnical parameters were used to apply a probabilistic approach for the design basis of geotechnical elements for offshore structures. In addition, geostatistical methods were applied in the treatment of geological uncertainty in the model. The model also includes a detailed review of local and regional natural hazards, including seismic, tsunami and submarine geohazards, with the potential to affect existing and proposed offshore infrastructure.
The tool comprises a fully interactive 3D geological and geotechnical ground model for each oil and gas field based on a geodatabase containing nearly 60 years of ground investigation data. The interface is operated through ESRI ArcMap but the geodatabase can be integrated into any online or offline GIS- based platform. Application of the tool enables effective decision making on key oil and gas development issues related to the siting of new exploration and development platforms and related infrastructure. The costs associated with offshore ground investigations are significant and mobilisation of works are heavily constrained by access, health, safety and environmental requirements. This digital tool will allow these works to be optimised at the advanced stages of planning, saving on time, cost and significantly reducing health, safety and environmental risks.