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Calgary-based Tourmaline Oil Corp. announced today that it is acquiring Black Swan Energy in an all-stock deal valued at CAD $1.1 billion. The transaction is set to boost Tourmaline's output by 50,000 BOE/D and the company expects to average around 500,000 BOE/D by mid-2022. The operator said the Black Swan acquisition is one of several it has made recently to become the largest producer in the north Montney Shale area of British Columbia. Black Swan's 231,000-acre position gives Tourmaline an estimated 1,600 horizontal drilling locations and proven and probable reserves of 491.9 million BOE. Tourmaline said in its announcement that Black Swan has not booked material reserves in other areas that it sees as having high potential and complementary to its existing footprint.
So who do leaders turn to? A very public example of this took place earlier this week during another SPE Live broadcast with a panel of SPE's own top volunteer leaders, including two past presidents, one future president, and one nominee for president. The thousands of oil and gas professionals who viewed the panel discussion on LinkedIn, Twitter, and SPE's website heard each panelist's personal rubric for what defines good leadership under extreme circumstances. Their lessons--which apply to executives, managers, and leaders of even the smallest teams--painted a collage of how industry leaders should be reacting to the double black swan of the COVID-19 pandemic and crushingly low oil prices. Maria Angela Capello, chair of the SPE Business Management and Leadership Committee, moderated the panel.
The objective of this conference is to better raise awareness of the residual risk in projects and taking into consideration a special focus on large or ultra large or Megaprojects. We will also try to understand how they can even be a game changer for a whole industry.
First, we will define it. Try to make the audience conscious of what residual risks are.
its potential impact on project management specially related to Megaprojects. On the proposal side we will try to analyse related budgeting and costs challenges.
We will try to cover the actuality based on examples from our experience, recent event or even the Covid 19 situation.
Briefly explain your overall approach, including your methods, procedures and process. (75-100 words)
The primary objective is to highlight the audience and project managers on the importance of Residual Risk.
Explain what it is. (Known Knowns, Known unknowns' unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns).
Help the audience to better classify and understand risks and risk models.
Challenge them if necessary. We will be using a case study-based approach with terrain feedback and analysis. On the practical side of the intervention it could even evolve with a real time panel approach and interactions with the audience. Leading to an interactive session, panel expert's discussion or a longer than normal Question and Answers time.
Please describe the results, observations and conclusions of the proposed paper. (100-200 words)
Projects and very specially Megaprojects often get delayed, costs explode and EPC´s risk liabilities, costs and in the worst case even a default situation and user/owners face delays, costs and huge opportunity costs.
Covid 19 is the perfect example of a risk that could be defined as a residual one. The impact on the execution, planning and existence of projects has been important this year.
By understanding and defining residual risks we can try to minimize the impact of them specially on Megaprojects.
Understand the difference between price and cost. Budget and define scopes correctly. Use industry norms or other best practices and knowledge-based strategies to minimize them.
Please explain how this paper will present novel (new) or additive information to the existing body of literature that can be of benefit to and/or add to the state of knowledge in the petroleum industry. (25-75 words)
This subject has to our knowledge rarely been discussed and the Covid 19 situation makes us all understand the impact of the highly improbable on reality and projects.
The Petroleum industry could highly benefit by better understanding these risks, defining them in the feed or prefeed phase, review calculations of these risk, understanding actual existing weapons against them, like normalization, innovation and best practice exchanges and specially try to foresee them or at least implement mitigation strategies.
What is more integral to the exploration and production (E&P) business than making decisions? In many ways it is the essence of business. Every day we have to choose between “rocks and hard places.” If you get it right, you are a genius. If you get it wrong, there is usually a good reason why, like a “perfect storm” suddenly conspiring to invalidate the assumptions underpinning your decision or perhaps an “unknown unknown.” Nassim Taleb’s book Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets suggests there may not always be a brilliant strategy and excellent decisions behind business success.
Most companies today have formal devil’s advocates (risk councils, peer reviews, controllers) trying to pick apart decisions and recommendations, trying to make sure only good decisions are allowed to be made. In addition, most companies have introduced formal “decision gate processes” for material (investment) decisions. According to Independent Project Analysis (IPA) these decision improvement measures really have not improved things appreciably. The expected case never happens and the decision maker is usually handed actual outcomes that are inferior to what was presented as expected in the decision support package.
More and more, it is not just about making the most money. Every company has corporate values against which all decisions must be tested and the “triple bottom line” (at least) makes it necessary to factor in many other elements. I sat down with an expert in the field of making decisions Patrick Leach, chief executive officer of Decision Strategies, to get his perspective on the 2.0 of making good decisions in 2015—something every SPE member would like to do well—at work and at home.
Well-performed risk assessment provides important business benefits. Fundamentally, risk assessment that follows through with risk reduction enables companies to cut costs arising from occupational accidents and illness. Proper risk assessment helps to reduce rates of sick leave, and insurance costs come down with fewer claims. More highly motivated workers are more productive and efficient, and staff turnover rates fall. This all helps businesses gain a competitive advantage. As more and more risk-complex systems are implemented in the workplace, with their accompanying new dangers and ill-defined hazards, well-performed risk assessment allows safety professionals to foresee and thus avoid OSHA penalties for serious and willful violations.
Many safety experts agree that one reason that injury rates are high is that protective measures that are only appropriate for low-level risks are being applied in situations where the risk involves frequent exposures to fatal or serious traumatic injury hazards. How to actually make acceptable risk decisions? Fischhoff (1981) contends that they can be arrived at operationally through fair compromise among reasonable individuals, including those at risk, using the best available estimates of a technology’s consequences. Risk assessment can be done quickly, flexibly and conveniently when the process proceeds, only as needed, from initial screening to closer observation to further analysis. Human reliability estimates can be used to help set qualitative ratings of probability of occurrence (e.g., high, medium, low, or negligible).
This paper will include exercises in efficient probability evaluation and risk assessment that participants can take home to use in their own on-the-job training activities. These exercises rely on an understanding that mindfulness of risk must be treated as a culture that is a product of individual and group values, attitudes, competencies, and patterns of behavior that determine the commitment to an organization’s health and safety programs.